The turbulences surely to kick up now on how global warming is affecting hurricanes? With some researchers strongly believing that it is warming, which is leading storms to get stronger, and some others that the warming phenomenon is perhaps making it harder for the hurricanes to form, the debate on the issue is sure to warm up.
Can we address this as the consequence of the 2005 Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, bringing the tropical cyclones into limelight? – And hence these debates and heavily focused research on this. True, research penetrations are not to stop, but, what are the consequences to more and more of these findings? – CONFUSION and fund investments?
Research studies of experts – global warming and hurricanes
While on one hand, research by Gabriel A. Vecchi of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Brian J. Soden of the University of Miami indicates that the wind shear will increase in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific, their these models did not find a similar scenario elsewhere.
According to the models, the west and central Pacific should become more favorable to storm development like typhoons in those areas.
But, has the sensitivity of storm to wind shear been overestimated? Kerry Emanuel, a hurricane expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology thinks that it is. He claimed to have published a study last year, which calculated the increase of a storm’s potential intensity via warming is 10 percent, increasing hurricane power by 65 percent.
On the other hand, the increase in shear by 10 percent decreases hurricane power by only 12 percent. But, Christopher W. Landsea of NOAA’s National Hurricane Center, addressed Vecchi’s study as a very important contribution to the understanding of how global warming is affecting hurricane activity.
The devastating results
But, of all, what is true is the gruesome hurricane season forecast yet to be issued by the government, resulting to a very active and perhaps devastating 2007 Atlantic hurricane season. The people living at the U.S. coast would be hit the most by the predicted nine hurricanes this year. Not knowing what is leading to it, they can never escape from its burns. Let us look at some other incidents and studies that highlight the link between global warming, climatic change, hurricanes and the effects of hurricanes.
NASA study proves effect of dust on seasonal hurricane activity
The study, by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration has validated through its research that the dust particles play a major part in the seasonal hurricane activity. The reports related the several major dust storms in June and July in the Sahara to the hurricanes and tropical storms.
The dust by the storms from the Sahara drifting over the Atlantic ocean formed a thick layer in the atmosphere screening the sunlight from the water which resulted in warming up of atmosphere and cooling down of water. This increased the surface winds that aid in evaporation and ocean churning, further cooling the waters.
According to the records only five hurricanes and four tropical storms were recorded in 2006, a marked decrease from the 15 hurricanes and 12 tropical storms recorded in 2005.
Hurricanes to increase in numbers and strength due to climatic change and global warming
When they talk about climate, global warming, hurricanes, we usually turn our deaf ears to them, thinking ‘why to bother its not happening in our areas and everything is right at our place’. However, this is not true at all, it is just they our naked eyes haven’t started seeing any such feature yet and it will never till we have some seriously tragic situation. The war that we think is already over and won has just started and will continue unabated if we keep on being unconcerned and destroying our planet-EARTH.Hurricanes are happening now and then, causing wide scale destructions and loss, both of humans and properties.
Eventually, we discover that water that is our basic necessity for sustaining life on earth has the power to become so violent and furious and cause such devastation. It is not that hurricanes haven’t happened in the previous times, our concern is the fact that they are increasing not only in numbers but also with respect to the devastation, fury, frequency and strength. As global warming is influencing the climate change it has been estimated that the larger areas of water will exceed thus, making the hurricanes and storms more violent and destructive.
If we track down experts and reviews provided by scientific papers, which were published, especially in the summers of 2005. The papers have a lot of scientific comments and methods dealing with hurricanes. As per a report of Greg Holland of the National Centre for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, and Peter Webster of the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta which was published in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, the scientists claimed that the number of Atlantic hurricanes has increased due to the increase in sea surface temperature as a result of climate changes. They also marked, that these storms were no longer in a scale to be ignored as they have reached the 4 and 5 figures.
If we look at the year 2005, it has been reported that a record 26 already named storms hit the earth out of which, thirteen grew bigger enough to be called hurricanes. The rest did don their part but the thirteen caused a widespread hue and cry.
It feels foolish to know that instead of knowing all the pros and cons of the situations we have been busy discussing the situations and not acting on them. The intellectuals are disputing over, that it may be that the intensity of the disturbances, cyclones and hurricanes have decreased instead. As far as point of view of some are concerned, they have an idea that the before sixties, there was no instrument or application available to record the strengths and a general increase in the intensity must be an assumption rather.
It is true that we may not be aware of the past and thus, can’t develop on the past and present but the fact is that here, we are dealing with the present and future. Super computers have shown that the world is witnessing a climate change as a result of which there would be a definitive increase in the wind speed, rainfall etc in the future hurricane.
It might be true that the scientists and researchers haven’t stuck with the same conclusion but we all know that the climate changes haven’t done any good to us. Where we sought nature as a panacea, it’s ironical that we, the mankind are struggling against the same nature. Half of the damage has already been done and if we continue with the same pace, the days are not far off that the very word-LIFE-would be wiped off from the face of this earth.
Devastating hurricanes thrived in cool seas as well: New study
Amidst debates on whether seas warmed by greenhouse gas emissions lead to more hurricanes or the El Nino and an African monsoon are the culprits, a new research adds up to it. The study found that frequent and strong hurricanes ruled the Western Atlantic regions even when El Ninos are weak or, when the Eastern Pacific Ocean’s surface waters were warming.
The West African monsoons were also found to be strong. Amazingly even when local seas were cooler than what they are now. In the study, Donnelly, the lead author and researcher at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution said – Irrespective of the local sea surface temperatures being warm or cool, intense hurricane records are found.
To support the findings, the study exemplifies the Caribbean’s experience of a relatively active interval of intense hurricanes for more than a millennium. This is even when local sea surface temperatures stayed cooler on average, compared to what it is now.
So it seems, more study of the Eastern Pacific and West African climate patterns would help better predict the changes in intense hurricane activity.